Economist prediction on BC housing prices for 2010?
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With all respect to all the well educated economists, I happened to have the same economist who did a prediction on BC housing market in last Oct in our major newspaper say that the BC market was into a "downward trajectory". Last Wed (Oct 21st), same economist has a completely opposite forecast in the same major newspaper on BC home prices. This time he predicts BC home prices could hit new highs in 2010. 9% increase in BC overall, 8% increase in Greater Vancouver, 9% increase in Victoria, 8% in Fraser VAlley, 5% in Chilliwack, 5% in Powell River and 11% in South Okanagan. What a difference a year makes. Predictions are wonderful to make. Do those who make them remember what they said earlier?
Facts:
Due to all the dooms & glooms news in late 2008 & early 2009. Those who were planning to buy held off because EVERYBODY said the market is going to crash another 15%-25%.
Governments all over the world offered their own stimulus package to save their country's economy. By Spring, Canada was very obvious ahead of all countries and was riding this economic storm smoother than the rest of the world. Pent up demand then happened. Bidding wars returned in no time. With the recent BC population growth forecast & our government announced that the West Coast is going to outplay other Provinces in Canada, in the next 20 yrs, BC future is very bright. We know interest rate is going to hike up sooner or later but the government announced to keep it low till June 2010. Even when it hikes, with the poor economy down South, what is the chance the interest rate will hike up to double digit. High interest rate will only slow down the economic growth therefore, logically, in my opinion, we don't need to worry too much. However, it doesn't mean we can just go out and get ourselves in huge debt.
If you believe the market is going down, I would think twice. If you think the HST will slow down the housing market, I would think twice as well. Different downtown pre-sale project recently sold out in short period of time with completion beyong 2010. The most recent one is by the Olympic Village site, when it opened couple weeks ago, there were 100 people lined up from 6am and it sold out 70% already.
I understand a lot of Chinese tend to shy away from Downtown market. However, please understand, Vancouver DT is a very vibrant with tons of people who want to live and work there. Lots of international students studies in DT English institutions. In my opinion, I don't need to worry about not being able to find a tenant. Downtown housing price has totally recovered or even surpassed the previous peak price.
I work, live and own several condo investments in DT, if you are interested in investing, please feel free to email me at tinamak@tinamak.com or call me at 604-412-5860.
